Risk Index — Q1 2026
The 10 Hardest Markets for Data Center Entitlements.
All 10 are getting worse. Every score is sourced, every claim verified. Four dimensions, weighted by how they kill projects.
Moratoriums, court voidings, organized opposition with 12,000+ petition signatures, drought declarations, and elections won on anti-data-center platforms. This is what teams need to see before committing budget.
Ranked by Composite Score
10 markets. Every one getting worse.
Scores reflect the combined weight of regulatory barriers, infrastructure gaps, opposition organization, and approval timeline risk. Lower is harder.
DeKalb County Data Center Moratorium
DeKalb County, DeKalb County, Georgia
Key Findings
- DeKalb County Board of Commissioners voted 4-3 on July 8, 2025 to approve a 100-day moratorium on new data center applications.
- Board voted unanimously on December 16, 2025 to extend the moratorium through June 23, 2026, escalating from the initial 4-3 vote.
- Draft text amendment (TA-25) establishes 5-category classification system with SLUP requirements, 500-foot setbacks, and 2,640-foot transit separation for Major and Campus-scale data centers.
Recommendation: DeKalb County has an active moratorium blocking all data center applications through June 23, 2026. No approval pathway exists. Avoid committing budget until the moratorium expires and the text amendment framework is adopted.
San Marcos Data Center — Meta / Hays County
San Marcos, Hays County, Texas
Key Findings
- San Marcos City Council voted 5-2 to deny the Preferred Scenario Map amendment at 2:14 AM on February 18, 2026, after an 8+ hour hearing with 130+ public comments.
- The Edwards Aquifer is at historic lows. Governor issued emergency drought declaration on January 17, 2026 affecting Hays County.
- Central Texas Water Coalition executive director Shannon Hamilton identified 53 data center proposals in the region.
Recommendation: Critical Risk. Three denials in 12 months combined with emergency drought conditions and organized opposition make San Marcos effectively blocked for data center development.
Prince William County Digital Gateway
Prince William County, Prince William County, Virginia
Key Findings
- Circuit Court Judge Kimberly Irving declared the three Digital Gateway rezoning ordinances void ab initio in August 2025.
- Court of Appeals issued November 17, 2025 order staying enforcement but prohibiting construction pending appeal.
- Board of County Supervisors voted 4-3 on March 3, 2026 to initiate zoning text amendment eliminating by-right approval for data centers.
Recommendation: Critical Risk. Rezonings voided by court, construction barred, Board moving to end by-right approvals. Do not commit budget until appeals court rules and zoning text amendment process concludes.
Google Data Center — Franklin Township, Indianapolis
Franklin Township, Marion County, Indiana
Key Findings
- Deep Meadow Ventures LLC (Google) filed to rezone 467.66 acres from D-A/C-4/SU-43 to C-S in Franklin Township.
- 17 of 25 City-County Council members — including all 6 Republicans — publicly opposed the project.
- Google withdrew the petition on September 22, 2025, minutes before the Council vote.
Recommendation: Critical Risk. Google withdrew after supermajority Council opposition. Indiana moratorium wave makes the state increasingly hostile for agricultural-land data center siting.
Nobles County Data Center — Geronimo Energy
Nobles County, Nobles County, Minnesota
Key Findings
- Data centers categorically prohibited in Nobles County Agricultural Preservation zoning district.
- Planning commission voted against the text amendment allowing DCs on February 4, 2026.
- SF 4298 proposes statewide moratorium on new data center permits introduced March 9, 2026.
Recommendation: Critical Risk. Data centers are prohibited by existing zoning. Planning commission and state legislature both trending restrictive.
Oregon, Ohio — Capacity LLC Data Center
City of Oregon, Lucas County, Ohio
Key Findings
- 3-2 vote with one abstention on extension ordinance produced legal dispute over whether it passed.
- Anti-DC mayoral candidate won with 63% of the vote in November 2025.
- Ohio constitutional amendment to ban DCs >25 MW certified by AG on March 16, 2026.
Recommendation: High Risk. New anti-DC mayor, legally contested extension, and Ohio constitutional amendment create compounding risk layers.
St. Louis Armory Data Center
City of St. Louis, City of St. Louis, Missouri
Key Findings
- Mayor Cara Spencer issued Executive Order 92 on September 19, 2025, establishing new data center requirements.
- Board of Aldermen passed Resolution 111 by 9-2 vote creating stricter review process ending as-of-right zoning.
- Moratorium bill voted down 7-8 — not even formally introduced (required 10 votes for floor introduction).
Recommendation: High Risk. As-of-right zoning eliminated, moratorium nearly passed, organized opposition with 12,000+ signatures. Budget allocation should await regulatory clarity.
King George County — Amazon Data Center
King George County, King George County, Virginia
Key Findings
- Board of Supervisors initiated downzoning of Amazon's 893 acres from industrial back to agricultural in April 2024.
- BZA voted 4-0 to deny Amazon's vested rights determination request in March 2025.
- Amazon filed circuit court appeal in April 2025 challenging the BZA decision.
Recommendation: High Risk. Active litigation, hostile board, downzoning proceedings, and statewide legislative uncertainty.
Google Data Center — Palo, Iowa
City of Palo, Linn County, Iowa
Key Findings
- Linn County adopted data center ordinance PA26-0001 on February 18, 2026 with strict requirements.
- Google informed Linn County on February 26, 2026 it would pursue annexation into Palo, ending months of good-faith negotiations.
- Supervisor Scheetz called Google's jurisdiction shopping "fundamentally wrong."
Recommendation: High Risk. Jurisdiction shopping, undefined regulations in target city, documented water vulnerability, and regional moratorium activity.
Santa Clara Data Center Market
City of Santa Clara, Santa Clara County, California
Key Findings
- GI Partners 72MW DC received 3-2 vote from Planning Commission (technical denial due to supermajority requirement). City Council approved on appeal.
- Two completed data centers (Digital Realty 48MW, Stack Infrastructure 48MW) sitting empty awaiting SVP power delivery.
- Planning Commission Chair Saleme: data centers are "unto itself, its own entity. There is little it will add to the community."
Recommendation: Moderate Risk. Entitlement pathway exists but requires budgeting for Planning Commission denial and Council appeal. Primary risk is infrastructure — SVP grid at capacity with $450M upgrade scheduled for 2028.
Methodology
Four dimensions. Weighted by how they kill projects.
Regulatory Risk and Infrastructure Readiness kill projects. Opposition slows them but also drives regulatory change. Approval Timeline is partly downstream of the other three.
Regulatory Risk
30 pts
Measures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.
Infrastructure Readiness
25 pts
Measures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.
Opposition Density
25 pts
Measures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.
Approval Timeline
20 pts
Measures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.
Score Interpretation
Important Caveats
- Scores reflect entitlement risk as of Q1 2026. Markets change rapidly.
- A clear entitlement path does not guarantee project success.
- Infrastructure delivery timelines are separate from entitlement risk.
- This index is AI-generated with human review. Verify independently.
Know where the risk lives before the budget compounds.
Moratoriums, court voidings, organized opposition, and grid constraints do not wait for your filing. Get the intelligence before deep diligence begins.
10 hardest markets. 8 states. Every claim sourced to the primary record.
