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Risk Index — Q1 2026OngoingWorsening

Nobles County Data Center — Geronimo Energy

Nobles County, Nobles County, Minnesota

14/100

Critical Risk

Last updated 2026-03-29

Trajectory evidence: SF 4298 statewide moratorium bill introduced. SF 608 (effective June 2025) restricts enterprise data centers to industrial districts. Planning commission voted against text amendment allowing DCs.

Composite Score14/100

Critical Risk

Dimension Breakdown

Four dimensions that determine entitlement feasibility.

Regulatory Risk

2/30

Data centers categorically prohibited in the Agricultural Preservation zoning district. Planning commission voted against text amendment to allow DCs as conditional use. SF 4298 proposes statewide moratorium.

Infrastructure Readiness

5/25

Rural southwest Minnesota served by cooperative utilities. The 400-1,000 MW demand would require massive new transmission infrastructure that does not exist. Geronimo plans behind-the-meter 960 MW gas generation.

Opposition Density

5/25

Change.org petition "Stop the Nobles County Mega Data Center" with 874 signatures. Planning commission voted against after dozens of residents testified. Minnesota Catholic Conference supports SF 4298. MCEA sued five Minnesota cities.

Approval Timeline

2/20

Requires text amendment (planning commission recommended against), AUAR environmental review (comment period through April 2026), SF 608 compliance, and conditional use permit. Geronimo targets 2027 groundbreaking, 2030 completion.

Key Findings

What the record shows.

Data centers categorically prohibited in Nobles County Agricultural Preservation zoning district.

Nobles County Planning and Zoning Commission

Planning commission voted against the text amendment allowing DCs on February 4, 2026.

Worthington Daily Globe

SF 4298 proposes statewide moratorium on new data center permits introduced March 9, 2026.

Minnesota Revisor of Statutes — SF 4298

County Attorney stated moratorium is legally moot because existing ordinance already prohibits data centers.

Worthington Daily Globe

Key Officials

The decision-makers on record.

Planning Commissioner Jay Clarke

Planning Commissioner

Opposed

Documented Record

Stated: "Why are we making exceptions for corporate America when we won't make exceptions for our own residents?"

Documented position based on public record.

Commissioner Robert Demuth

County Commissioner

Supported

Documented Record

Opposed the motion to recommend no change — supported allowing data centers. Was in the minority.

Documented position based on public record.

Opposition Profile

Who is organizing.

5 signalshigh infrastructure

Change.org petition "Stop the Nobles County Mega Data Center" — 874 signatures

Residents testified against at February 4, 2026 public hearing

Minnesota Catholic Conference formally supports SF 4298

MCEA sued five Minnesota cities advancing data center projects

Timeline

How it unfolded.

February 4, 2026

Planning commission voted against text amendment allowing DCs.

March 11, 2026

County board approved AUAR drafts 4-1.

April 16, 2026

AUAR comment period closes.

Known Risks

What can go wrong.

Data centers categorically prohibited in agricultural zones

Rural infrastructure insufficient for 400-1,000 MW demand

Statewide moratorium bill introduced

Planning commission recommended against text amendment

Recommendation

Critical Risk — Score 14/100

Critical Risk. Data centers are prohibited by existing zoning. Planning commission and state legislature both trending restrictive.

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