Q1 2026 Risk Index

Data Center Entitlement Risk Index

20 U.S. markets scored for entitlement risk. Which markets will fight your data center — and which will welcome it? Every score is sourced. Every claim is verified. The methodology is public.

$64 billion in U.S. data center projects blocked or delayed since 2023. All 10 hardest markets are getting worse, not better. The 28-point gap between the hardest and clearest markets is the difference between a 36-month political fight and a 6-month build.

20 Markets Scored15 States75+ Claims VerifiedMethodology-Transparent
See the 10 HardestSee the 10 Clearest

Transparent Methodology

How We Score

Four dimensions, weighted by how much they actually kill or clear a project. Every score decomposes into evidence you can verify.

Regulatory Risk

30 pts

Measures zoning classification, approval pathway type (by-right, CUP, rezoning), moratorium status, and regulatory trajectory. Higher scores indicate clearer regulatory paths.

Infrastructure Readiness

25 pts

Measures utility capacity, grid interconnection availability, water supply adequacy, and infrastructure investment commitments. Higher scores indicate better infrastructure readiness.

Opposition Density

25 pts

Measures organized opposition groups, petition scale, public hearing attendance, political consequences (elections, recalls), and legal challenges. Higher scores indicate less opposition.

Approval Timeline

20 pts

Measures historical approval durations, number of sequential approval steps, legal challenges affecting timeline, and demonstrated fast-track capabilities. Higher scores indicate faster approvals.

Score Interpretation

RangeLabelSignal
0-20Critical RiskMoratorium, denial, or fundamental barrier
21-40High RiskOrganized opposition, hostile trajectory
41-60Moderate RiskPathway exists but contested or constrained
61-80Low RiskSupportive environment, standard process
81-100Clear PathPre-approved or near-frictionless pathway

Weight Rationale

Regulatory Risk and Infrastructure Readiness kill projects. Opposition slows them but also drives regulatory change. Approval Timeline is partly downstream of the other three.

Scores reflect entitlement risk as of Q1 2026. Markets change rapidly.

A clear entitlement path does not guarantee project success.

Infrastructure delivery timelines are separate from entitlement risk.

This index is AI-generated with human review. Verify independently.

High Entitlement Risk

The 10 Hardest Markets for Data Center Entitlements

All 10 are getting worse. Moratoriums, organized opposition, hostile boards, active litigation. Know the fight before you enter it.

#1
Moratorium
↓ Worsening8

DeKalb County, Georgia

Critical Risk

DeKalb County Board of Commissioners voted 4-3 on July 8, 2025 to approve a 100-day moratorium on new data center applications.

DeKalb County has an active moratorium blocking all data center applications through June 23, 2026. No approval pathway exists. Avoid committing budget until the moratorium expires and the text amendment framework is adopted.

0/30
0/25
2/25
0/20
Read full analysis →
#2
Denied
↓ Worsening8

San Marcos, Texas

Critical Risk

San Marcos City Council voted 5-2 to deny the Preferred Scenario Map amendment at 2:14 AM on February 18, 2026, after an 8+ hour hearing with 130+ public comments.

Critical Risk. Three denials in 12 months combined with emergency drought conditions and organized opposition make San Marcos effectively blocked for data center development.

3/30
4/25
1/25
0/20
Read full analysis →
#3
Ongoing
↓ Worsening12

Prince William County, Virginia

Critical Risk

Circuit Court Judge Kimberly Irving declared the three Digital Gateway rezoning ordinances void ab initio in August 2025.

Critical Risk. Rezonings voided by court, construction barred, Board moving to end by-right approvals. Do not commit budget until appeals court rules and zoning text amendment process concludes.

3/30
5/25
0/25
4/20
Read full analysis →
#4
Withdrawn
↓ Worsening13

Franklin Township, Indiana

Critical Risk

Deep Meadow Ventures LLC (Google) filed to rezone 467.66 acres from D-A/C-4/SU-43 to C-S in Franklin Township.

Critical Risk. Google withdrew after supermajority Council opposition. Indiana moratorium wave makes the state increasingly hostile for agricultural-land data center siting.

3/30
10/25
0/25
0/20
Read full analysis →
#5
Ongoing
↓ Worsening14

Nobles County, Minnesota

Critical Risk

Data centers categorically prohibited in Nobles County Agricultural Preservation zoning district.

Critical Risk. Data centers are prohibited by existing zoning. Planning commission and state legislature both trending restrictive.

2/30
5/25
5/25
2/20
Read full analysis →
#6
Ongoing
↓ Worsening28

City of Oregon, Ohio

High Risk

3-2 vote with one abstention on extension ordinance produced legal dispute over whether it passed.

High Risk. New anti-DC mayor, legally contested extension, and Ohio constitutional amendment create compounding risk layers.

10/30
8/25
5/25
5/20
Read full analysis →
#7
Ongoing
↓ Worsening33

City of St. Louis, Missouri

High Risk

Mayor Cara Spencer issued Executive Order 92 on September 19, 2025, establishing new data center requirements.

High Risk. As-of-right zoning eliminated, moratorium nearly passed, organized opposition with 12,000+ signatures. Budget allocation should await regulatory clarity.

8/30
15/25
5/25
5/20
Read full analysis →
#8
Ongoing
↓ Worsening34

King George County, Virginia

High Risk

Board of Supervisors initiated downzoning of Amazon's 893 acres from industrial back to agricultural in April 2024.

High Risk. Active litigation, hostile board, downzoning proceedings, and statewide legislative uncertainty.

12/30
10/25
8/25
4/20
Read full analysis →
#9
Ongoing
↓ Worsening38

City of Palo, Iowa

High Risk

Linn County adopted data center ordinance PA26-0001 on February 18, 2026 with strict requirements.

High Risk. Jurisdiction shopping, undefined regulations in target city, documented water vulnerability, and regional moratorium activity.

10/30
16/25
7/25
5/20
Read full analysis →
#10
Ongoing
↓ Worsening42

City of Santa Clara, California

Moderate Risk

GI Partners 72MW DC received 3-2 vote from Planning Commission (technical denial due to supermajority requirement). City Council approved on appeal.

Moderate Risk. Entitlement pathway exists but requires budgeting for Planning Commission denial and Council appeal. Primary risk is infrastructure — SVP grid at capacity with $450M upgrade scheduled for 2028.

14/30
6/25
12/25
10/20
Read full analysis →

Clearest Entitlement Paths

10 Markets Where the Entitlement Path Is Clearest

Not guaranteed — but the evidence favors approval. Proven regulatory frameworks, supportive local government, and infrastructure that actually exists.

#1
high confidence
→ Stable88

Pryor / MidAmerica Industrial Park, Oklahoma

Clear Path

MAIP operates under a public trust with regulatory sovereignty that eliminates standard entitlement friction. Google has invested $4.4B+ since 2011 with no opposition. The park has 50 MGD water capacity with 32 MGD available and 1,480+ MW of dedicated power.

Favorable market for data center development. MAIP's public trust structure provides the clearest entitlement path documented in any U.S. market.

27/30
22/25
21/25
18/20
Read full analysis →
#2
high confidence
→ Stable86

Storey County (TRIC), Nevada

Clear Path

TRIC's Development Agreement provides a locked-in regulatory framework since 2000 with pre-approved DC use, 7-day grading permits, and 30-day building permits. Five on-site power plants with 900+ MW.

Favorable market. TRIC's Development Agreement is among the strongest regulatory shields documented in any U.S. market.

27/30
19/25
22/25
18/20
Read full analysis →
#3
high confidence
→ Stable84

Abilene, Texas

Clear Path

Abilene has a proven fast-track approval process with the DCOA coordinating annexation and incentives. 1.2GW ERCOT interconnection approved. Texas counties legally cannot impose moratoriums.

Favorable market. Proven fast-track approvals, 1.2GW ERCOT interconnection, and Texas counties legally cannot impose moratoriums.

24/30
23/25
20/25
17/20
Read full analysis →
#4
high confidence
→ Stable84

Papillion, Nebraska

Clear Path

Sarpy County explicitly lists data centers in its zoning code. OPPD ranked #2 nationally for DC power share. No organized opposition. Meta has expanded 5 times since 2016.

Favorable market. Explicit zoning code listing, OPPD's massive generation pipeline, and no organized opposition.

24/30
22/25
22/25
16/20
Read full analysis →
#5
high confidence
→ Stable82

Clarksville, Tennessee

Clear Path

By-right approval in industrial zones, TVA power infrastructure, zero organized opposition, and Google operating successfully since 2019. Tennessee has expanded DC incentives.

Favorable market. By-right approval, TVA infrastructure, and no organized opposition.

24/30
20/25
22/25
16/20
Read full analysis →
#6
high confidence
→ Stable79

Cheyenne, Wyoming

Low Risk

Cheyenne has a dedicated Data Building Code, DC-specific utility tariffs, proactive annexation policy, and no organized opposition. Wyoming House rejected attempt to repeal DC tax exemptions 6-3.

Standard process expected. Proactive local government, dedicated DC infrastructure, and legislative support.

24/30
21/25
18/25
16/20
Read full analysis →
#7
high confidence
→ Stable78

Lebanon, Indiana

Low Risk

LEAP PUD provides by-right DC approval in the Industrial Mega Site subdistrict. Meta investing $10B+, Eli Lilly co-locating, state providing $60M infrastructure funding. Opposition exists but has not blocked any project.

Standard process expected. LEAP provides an unusually favorable regulatory framework despite statewide moratorium activity in other Indiana counties.

25/30
19/25
15/25
19/20
Read full analysis →
#8
high confidence
→ Stable77

Council Bluffs, Iowa

Low Risk

Google's 18-year presence ($6.8B+ invested) has established Council Bluffs as a mature DC market with supportive local government and MidAmerican Energy infrastructure.

Standard process expected. Mature market with 18 years of DC operations and supportive local government.

22/30
20/25
20/25
15/20
Read full analysis →
#9
high confidence
↓ Worsening72

Mesa, Arizona

Low Risk

Mesa has established DC zoning framework (Ordinance 5957) and SRP infrastructure commitment. 15 DCs built/approved/proposed on 1,500 acres. However, trajectory is Worsening due to statewide tax incentive repeal efforts and adjacent city rejections.

Standard process expected but monitor closely. Mesa's favorable score may degrade as statewide tax incentive repeal efforts advance.

20/30
21/25
16/25
15/20
Read full analysis →
#10
high confidence
↑ Improving70

Temple, Texas

Low Risk

Temple demonstrates an improving trajectory with multiple unanimous approvals, active construction, and $800M Meta investment. Rezoning is required but consistently approved. Only market with "Improving" trajectory.

Standard process expected. Temple is the only market showing an Improving trajectory, with multiple unanimous approvals and active construction.

20/30
19/25
17/25
14/20
Read full analysis →

Index Findings

What the data shows.

10 of 10

Hardest markets are getting worse, not better. Every single one has a Worsening trajectory.

$64B

In U.S. data center projects blocked or delayed since 2023. $98B delayed in a single quarter of 2025.

28-point gap

Between the hardest and clearest markets. The difference between a 36-month political fight and a 6-month build.

1 market

In the Clearest list is actively worsening. Mesa, Arizona scored 72 but Governor Hobbs is pursuing tax incentive repeal.

Get Your Site Scored

The index shows market-level risk. For site-level intelligence — your specific parcel, your specific use, your specific scale — request a scored intelligence brief.

Three fields. Where, what, and how big. Everything else is derived from public records.

20 markets scored. 15 states. Every claim verified.

RealClear

Source-backed entitlement intelligence for development teams screening live sites before legal, consultant, utility, and political spend compounds. Zoning posture, approval pathways, community risk, and comparable outcomes — cited to the primary source, not a third-party summary.

Company

California

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